IATA pushes expectation of aviation recovery to 2024

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) expects that the aviation sector will not fully recover until 2024, assuming a vaccine becomes available in 2021.

Though many airlines have restarted operations, IATA cites air traffic to be ‘unexpectedly weak’. “The good news is… we saw a further rise in air travel globally in June, the second consecutive month from the April low point,” said IATA chief economist Brian Pearce during a briefing today. “The bad news is that rise was barely visible. It was disappointingly and unexpectedly weak.”

The slow process of containing coronavirus in the United States is a major factor in the weak recovery. IATA also points to the slow recovery of business travel, an important market for many airlines. Then there is also the impact of restrictive travel measures, such as mandatory quarantines upon arrival in some countries.

Compared to June 2019, air traffic was a whopping 87 percent lower this year. The IATA now expects the aviation industry not to be fully recovered until 2024. This forecast is based on a vaccine becoming available in the second half of 2021.